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Most Common Winning Hand In Texas Holdem

Holdem

Introduction

  • 18+ T&C Most Common Winning Hand In Texas Holdem Apply – To receive the welcome bonus a minimum deposit of £/€/$ 10 is required. The minimum deposit for other offers that require a deposit will be clearly communicated. Maximum bonus offered will be.
  • Depending on how many hands they play, they can earn up to thousands of dollars per month, allowing them to minimize their losses. In a sense, casinos have a love-hate relationship with Texas Hold’em. On the one hand, they’d prefer you to play anything else, where the house edge is higher, and the chance for profit is more.

'Bad beat' is a term that can mean having an outstanding chance of winning a bet, only to still lose. The term can be used in any form of gambling but is most commonly applied to poker. Many poker rooms offer a progressive jackpot for very unlikely bad beats. Various other rules are added to ensure that only surprising bad beats win. Below I present tables of bad beat probabilities, starting with the most liberal rules, and ending with the most stringent. The most stringent rules, the 'Bad Beat Type 3', are the most common, in my experience.

Following are the rules for a type 1 bad beat.

  1. Both the bad beat and winning hand must be the best possible combination of five cards. In cases where the same hand can be created multiple ways (for example player has AK and the board shows AAKKQ) the player's hole cards will take priority.
  2. Both the bad beat and winning hand must make use of both hole cards.
  3. A full house must be beaten by a four of a kind or higher.

The rules for a type 2 bad beat are the same as type 1, plus any four of a kind, whether the bad beat hand or winning hand, must contain a pocket pair.

The rules for a type 3 bad beat are the same as type 2, plus a full house may not make use of a three of a kind entirely on the board.

The most common method of obfuscation is to make a small bet or check and wait for an opponent to raise or open the betting, and counter with a large (re-)raise. This is particularly effective against extremely tight players when they are playing marginal hands.

In my experience, is the most common format for bad beat rules is type 3. The additional rule for type 3 makes very little difference, compared to type 2.

The following table shows the probability of each bad beat hand under all three types of rules. The table is based on a ten-player game in which nobody ever folds. The probabilities are for any pair of players meeting the qualifying rules. If you want to know YOUR probability of winning, you should divide the probability in the table by 10.

Bad Beat Probabilities

Texas Holdem Hands

Bad Beat HandType 1Type 2Type 3
Any full house0.002033290.000503050.00049508
Full house, three 3's or higher0.001895120.000469780.00046204
Full house, three 4's or higher0.001751590.000434440.00042728
Full house, three 5's or higher0.001603330.000397060.00039028
Full house, three 6's or higher0.001449650.000357410.00035145
Full house, three 7's or higher0.00129360.000317670.00031266
Full house, three 8's or higher0.001134920.000277750.00027355
Full house, three 9's or higher0.000973790.000237720.00023445
Full house, three T's or higher0.000811130.000197590.00019503
Full house, three J's or higher0.000647630.000157080.00015509
Full house, three Q's or higher0.000485330.000118380.00011682
Full house, three K's or higher0.000325610.000081300.00008033
Full house, three A's or higher0.000169640.000046080.00004579
Full house, aces full of 3's or higher0.000160040.000043500.00004322
Full house, aces full of 4's or higher0.000149860.000040800.00004052
Full house, aces full of 5's or higher0.000138980.000037970.00003763
Full house, aces full of 6's or higher0.000127490.000035040.00003469
Full house, aces full of 7's or higher0.000115800.000032330.00003203
Full house, aces full of 8's or higher0.000103470.000029570.00002925
Full house, aces full of 9's or higher0.000090670.000026730.00002645
Full house, aces full of T's or higher0.000077140.000023830.00002359
Full house, aces full of J's or higher0.000062860.000020640.0000204
Full house, aces full of Q's or higher0.000047930.000017380.00001721
Full house, aces full of K's or higher0.000032300.000014080.00001402
Any four of a kind0.000016010.000010860.00001081
Four 3's or higher0.000014370.000009960.00000992
Four 4's or higher0.00001270.000009000.00000902
Four 5's or higher0.000010990.000008050.00000804
Four 6's or higher0.000009340.000007050.00000707
Four 7's or higher0.00000780.000006130.00000611
Four 8's or higher0.00000640.000005250.00000519
Four 9's or higher0.000005190.000004390.00000435
Four T's or higher0.000004140.000003590.00000357
Four J's or higher0.000003170.000002870.00000285
Four Q's or higher0.000002460.000002260.00000224
Four K's or higher0.000001930.000001800.00000179
Four A's or higher0.000001570.000001490.00000147
Any straight flush0.00000120.000001220.00000121
Straight flush 6 high or higher0.000001050.000001070.00000105
Straight flush 7 high or higher0.000000890.000000910.00000090
Straight flush 8 high or higher0.000000730.000000740.00000074
Straight flush 9 high or higher0.000000560.000000590.00000058
Straight flush T high or higher0.000000410.000000430.00000042
Straight flush J high or higher0.000000280.000000270.00000027
Straight flush Q high or higher0.000000120.000000120.00000012

Methodology

The above tables are the result of random simulations of about 2.5 billion rounds each.

Further Reading

The video poker variant World Series of Poker - Final Table Bonus features a bad beat jackpot. See my section on that game for more information.

Brian Alspach has a very good page on Texas Hold'em, including a section on the Bad Beat Jackpot at Party Poker.


Written by: Michael Shackleford

The Most Common Texas Holdem Poker Mistake

There are many strategy plays you can make in a poker games, but which one keeps you in the game the longest? What’s the action that most good players take more often than any other?

It’s not extraordinary, it’s not unforgettable, but it’s a basic poker play – fold. You might not see it on the edited clips from WSOP where every hand has something happeningt, but the reality is that even the poker pros fold most of the time. So in reverse of that, what is the biggest mistake the average player makes? These poker players make the mistake of calling when they should’ve folded, costing them loads of chips.

Winning Hands In Texas Holdem

They do this without any consideration of the number of opponents, the number of previous bets, or their position on the table, they somehow manage to get involved in pots with weak hands. This is especially common when they have an ace in their hand and don’t pay any attention to the other factors. For some players an ace is a guaranteed winning card. They never realise its not.

There are even players that will cold-call a raise, putting out two bets where they should’ve got out of the hand. That’s not how betting in poker works, especially if you’re looking to get poker winning hands.

Why Does This Happen In Texas Holdem?

The reason for this is that the player becomes aggravated that someone has taken the initiative from under their nose. So, instead of being thankful that the opponent before them revealed their plan, they become angry and go on a mini tilt.

All of this stubbornness results in money lost, all because they couldn’t get away from a good hand, even when all the signs point toward the opponent having a better hand. You can see this kind of betting in poker tournaments all the time – a player slamming down a hand of A-T in anger, just because another player raised before them. If all this was avoided, they could have saved money, which is just as good as winning money, especially with a not-so-good hand.

Remember, if your hand is a long shot and against the pot odds, it’s best to fold, especially when you don’t lose any money in the process. Don’t understand pot odds? Check out this post.

Fold, Call Or Raise In Texas Holdem Poker?

Different Hands In Texas Holdem

When a player before you raises, your hand can quickly turn from a good one to a folding one. It can sometimes be a strong hand, in which case you can re-raise, but it will rarely be a calling hand.

If you’re playing in the cutoff seat (right next to the button) or on the button, and you have a player raising before you, it’s best to fold most of the times, even when you planned on raising.

Let’s take this scenario as an example.

If you have a big pair, you can re-raise to a three-bet in hopes of playing against the initial raiser. In that case, you’ll have a huge advantage when the flop comes. Not only will you have the last raise in, but you’ll also have the upper position over your opponent during the entire hand.

But that doesn’t mean that you’ll play the hand all the way to the river. If you make it three-bets with J-J and the flop has an A and a K, you’d be making a bad move to keep playing when others make any action. But if there are no overcards in the flop, you’ll be the favourite over anyone raising with a pair of nines through a pair of aces, as well as A-K, A-Q, A-J, and K-Q. And yes, you’d probably think that a pair of jacks doesn’t stand a chance over a pair of aces, but everything is not so simple in a poker game. That pair of jacks is favoured over the range of his raising hands. If he raises with any hand, ranging from a 9-9 or A-A, as well as A-K, A-Q, A-J, or K-Q, here’s the math.

The Maths Of Playing Jacks

There are 6 ways to make a pair and 16 ways to combine two cards like A-K or A-Q. If your opponent will raise with 9-9 through A-A, that’s five pairs with a total of 30 different combinations. But you’re holding two out of four jacks, so only two will remain.

He’s also likely to raise with A-K, A-Q, A-J, or K-Q, which make an additional 16 combinations. Minus the 8 combinations due to your pair of jacks, that’s another 56 hands he’s likely to raise with, totaling 87 hands – 56 big card combinations, plus 31 combinations for a pair.

At this point, your JJ is ahead of 69 of these 87 combinations, meaning you’re the favourite when compared to the possible hands of your opponent.

Conclusion

To sum it up, there are a couple of lessons to be learned here – and this might be the most profitable advice you ever get on poker – a bet saved is as good as a bet won, raise more than you call and fold more than you raise. As with all the poker strategies we have discussed, how when and why you fold pre-flop needs to be thought about and used together in many different combinations and situations in order to get poker winning hands.

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